Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.802297 22.585539 24.509710 26.750386 29.300790 32.128710 35.522871
2025-10-12 17.899111 20.329498 23.134015 26.649408 30.995838 36.273113 43.292935
2025-10-19 16.083689 18.898648 22.318845 26.866071 32.890839 40.813211 52.411923
2025-10-26 14.577362 17.573251 21.359971 26.634514 34.030597 44.443006 61.065407
2025-11-02 13.416729 16.512354 20.553625 26.407008 35.027065 47.928599 70.273988
2025-11-09 12.546997 15.719910 19.980306 26.369462 36.209694 51.814843 81.116217
2025-11-16 11.786329 14.990797 19.397902 26.209567 37.126650 55.382789 92.422808
2025-11-23 11.137361 14.353266 18.870619 26.044369 37.969228 58.934343 104.846281
2025-11-30 10.567505 13.778260 18.374010 25.852934 38.710054 62.410557 118.378857
2025-12-07 10.110651 13.328998 18.019151 25.834708 39.723805 66.585746 135.294124
2025-12-14 9.671811 12.874074 17.615082 25.683820 40.460503 70.343493 152.948553
2025-12-21 9.505617 12.809521 17.801228 26.533241 43.175841 78.949603 189.545802
2025-12-28 9.085250 12.344171 17.335547 26.232024 43.664750 82.807464 214.491572
2026-01-04 8.755949 12.000508 17.042351 26.211181 44.729023 88.386918 250.631315
2026-01-11 8.504425 11.762179 16.902233 26.451826 46.380887 95.991622 303.425319
2026-01-18 8.188600 11.404436 16.538176 26.236119 47.005713 101.043807 351.206526
2026-01-25 7.897145 11.069955 16.190797 26.017448 47.590481 106.201318 407.782833
2026-02-01 7.658828 10.808442 15.950359 25.982159 48.596742 113.022780 488.110067
2026-02-08 7.417677 10.530235 15.663211 25.826189 49.290690 119.138002 578.725504
2026-02-15 7.192078 10.266870 15.386057 25.664677 49.948730 125.434191 690.753996
2026-02-22 6.977219 10.011591 15.108408 25.477341 50.515756 131.689719 827.693543
2026-03-01 6.800809 9.812588 14.919948 25.459524 51.528806 140.148199 1036.934208
2026-03-08 6.616323 9.592102 14.680293 25.311809 52.172845 147.491561 1284.437209